In 2015/2016, the domestic cotton market experienced a V-shaped trend, and the market sentiment turned from extremely pessimistic to optimistic.
From a cyclical perspective, cotton prices were successfully bottomed in March and April 2016, and a new cotton cycle started. The 2016/2017 cotton price center of gravity will gradually increase, but under the circumstances of market sentiment and expected changes, the probability of a unilateral move in the cotton market will decrease, and oscillation will be the main theme.
The new cycle is in the start-up phase
Since 2000, from the point of view of the formation, development and decline of each cycle of the cotton market, it has experienced three complete cycles of change.
The first cycle, November 2001-November 2004. In 2001, when the Internet bubble burst, the global economic downturn superimposed the impact of the September 11 incident in the United States and accelerated the bottoming process of cotton prices. In 2001, China's accession to the WTO, cotton production in 2003, economic overheating pushed up cotton prices, causing high cotton production in 2004 and prices fall.
The second cycle, November 2004 - November 2008. In 2005, China's textile and apparel exports to Europe and the United States and other countries and regions canceled quota restrictions, but trade disputes continued. The reduction in cotton production in 2005, the outbreak of the international economic crisis in 2008 accelerated the bottoming out of cotton prices.
The third cycle, November 2008 - March 2016. The situation in this cycle is relatively special and can be considered as a historical situation that can be met without being demanded: First, the two consecutive years of production cuts in 2009 and 2010. Second, the State Reserve Bank has basically bottomed out, and the third is Zheng Merchants' revision of 2010. The fourth rule of registration of warehouse receipts is multi-factor push up the price of cotton. In 2011-2013, China's temporary storage for three years in a row has increased the market demand, delayed the pace of global cotton price declines, and extended the period of operation. In 2014, China withdrew from its temporary purchase and storage policy, implemented a target price reform, and returned cotton prices to the market.
We believe that the current stage of the new cycle is at the bottom of cotton prices that have been established in March and April 2016. For the later trend, if the cotton price rises, it needs macroeconomics, supply and demand and other factors. On the macroeconomic front, China's economy is currently undergoing structural adjustment. Relatively surplus capacity needs to be digested, and the new economic growth point is not yet mature. In terms of supply and demand, the State Reserve’s cotton stocks are still huge, and the Chinese government has strong regulatory capabilities. The 2016/2017 cotton price rises lacked a foundation.
The domestic market is expected to change, cotton is difficult to unilateral trend
According to our research, market expectations for 2016/2017 have changed significantly from 2015/2016. The pessimism in the market has dissipated, and the impulse of ginning companies to dump cargoes has decreased. This has slowed down the pressure on early cotton prices and weakened the cotton in the future. The upward power of prices.
Cotton suppliers: In 2015/2016, cotton prices fell first and then rose. Many ginning factories that dumped goods in advance lost money or made little money, and there was less likelihood of panic selling in 2016/2017. Some ginning factories stated that they had plans to reserve a small amount of high-quality cotton to be sold during the dumping period, thereby slowing the downward pressure on cotton prices in the first half of the year.
Cotton demand side: In 2015/2016 there was a strange phenomenon that textile enterprises in Xinjiang had no cotton available, and some textile companies transferred cotton from Xinjiang into Xinjiang for production. In order to ensure the smooth progress of production, the textile enterprises in Xinjiang in 2016/2017 will increase the use of cotton in the new year in advance, which will slow down the possible rise in cotton prices in the future.
Overall, the impact of policies cannot be ignored. In 2016/2017, the focus of cotton prices will gradually increase, and the oscillation will be the main theme.
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