1 Polyester market sentiment rebounded significantly
In mid-December, many domestic textile companies have encountered a big problem: high raw material prices. It can be seen from the report of a textile company in Shengze Town, Suzhou City for nearly one month that the price of polyester factory is raised by 100-300 yuan/ton almost every day. For textile companies, the first day hesitated, the price rose the next day, and the price rose on the third day. The fourth day he wanted to buy but was out of stock... The continued rise in polyester prices made it difficult for the downstream.
In fact, since September this year, there has been a round of rising prices in the polyester market.
“During the G20 summit in September, the large-scale centralized parking and maintenance of the polyester factory in Jiangsu and Zhejiang led to a rapid decline in the supply of polyester. The terminal orders were quickly released after the G20 summit, boosting the demand for polyester products and improving the supply and demand pattern of polyester. The profit of polyester production rebounded.†Soochow futures analyst Wang Guangqian said that at the same time, the price of polyester direct raw material MEG rose rapidly at the end of September, and the PTA price also oscillated at the end of September. Under the effect of rising costs, downstream enterprises have accelerated the pace of replenishing polyester raw materials, resulting in a rapid decline in the inventory of finished products of polyester enterprises, and the continuous rise in the price of polyester products. The production and sales of polyester are booming, profit and market. The boom has gradually picked up.
Wu Xiaofen, an analyst at China Silk Network, also found that the peak season of the polyester market in the second half of this year has been extended compared with previous years. She told the Futures Daily reporter that in September this year, affected by the G20 summit, the fabric market in autumn and winter orders generally performed, and the polyester filament market was relatively flat. After October, the orders for fabrics arrived in the middle of the month. In the middle of the month, driven by the rise in crude oil prices and the improvement in production and sales, the price of polyester filaments rose strongly and there was a wide range of price increases.
“In the fourth quarter of this year, the price of polyester raw materials rebounded. In addition to the increase in crude oil, the alliance meeting of polyester manufacturers is also an important factor supporting the firm price of polyester filaments.†Wu Xiaofen believes that under the combined effect of upstream and downstream, The price of polyester raw materials represented by polyester filament yarns has risen sharply, and the prices of some raw materials such as polyester and nylon have increased by more than 30%.
Longzhong information data shows that as of now, the price of semi-gloss polyester chips in East China is 7725 yuan / ton, up 1575 yuan / ton from September 23, an increase of 25.61%; Jiangsu Sanfang Lane (600370, shares it) polyester The ex-factory price of bottle tablets was 8,100 yuan / ton, up 1400 yuan / ton from September 23, an increase of 20.90%. For polyester filament, the price of polyester filament POY150D/48F in East China is 8800 yuan/ton, up 2,000 yuan/ton from September 23, or 29.41%; the price of polyester filament FDY150D/96F in East China is 9750 yuan/ Tons, up 2,150 yuan / ton from September 23, an increase of 28.29%; the price of polyester filament DTY150D/48F in East China was 10,450 yuan / ton, up 1825 yuan / ton from September 23, an increase of 21.16%; The price of polyester staple fiber was 8,700 yuan / ton, up 1900 yuan / ton from September 23, an increase of 27.94%.
2 Industry profits are at a high level
As the market boom gradually picks up, the polyester industry is turning a profit. Up to now, the profit of polyester production is nearly 260 yuan / ton, which is a relatively high level in the industry in the past two years.
Currently, polyester inventories are at an absolute low level during the year, which is also lower than the same period last year. On the one hand, polyester manufacturers are more willing to use the low-inventory strategy before the Spring Festival; on the other hand, the downstream peak season has not yet ended, the short-term crude oil price increase strengthens the PTA's good expectations, and the downstream enterprises have a strong willingness to buy. There is a good digestion of polyester stocks.
In fact, this year's polyester terminal products have appeared in a situation of continuous out of stock, in which FDY products have been continuously oversold, and the finished products of downstream warp knitting enterprises are also oversold.
“The phenomenon of oversold and out of stock in the polyester and terminal markets is affected by the G20 summit. Some orders are moved backwards and released in a concentrated manner. At the same time, the cold winter brought by La Nina is expected to drive a large number of orders from terminal enterprises.†Wang Guangqian said that this year’s polyester enterprises at the beginning of the year During the G20 summit, a large-scale parking maintenance operation was carried out. The polyester production base was low, and the supply and demand pattern reversed, resulting in continuous decline in market inventories, which intensified the “self-reinforcing†expectation of market price increases, thereby stimulating terminal rigidity and speculativeness. The procurement demand is released centrally.
In addition to the above factors, in the view of Huang Shiqiang, an analyst at Jinshi Futures, this year's polyester market has been oversold, mainly due to inflation expectations. “Generally speaking, when commodities enter the down cycle, although the prices are even lower, but under the leadership of panic, the market is bearish and the purchase is not positive. The oversold phenomenon in the polyester market this year indicates that inflation expectations Under the influence of the market, the market believes that the rising cycle of polyester has arrived, and the market outlook is expected to continue to rise. Therefore, polyester downstream enterprises are actively stocking, and polyester demand is picking up,†Huang Liqiang said.
According to Wu Xiaofen, in the face of wave after wave of polyester filaments, the downstream manufacturers have increased their enthusiasm for smashing goods, and the operating rate has remained at a high level. In addition, due to the sluggish domestic market in the past few years, polyester manufacturers are also actively exploring overseas markets, and export sales have become one of the channels for diverting polyester production.
3 Shengze textile industry “beautiful sceneryâ€
"Sunrise Wansi, clothing is the world", in the Ming Dynasty Feng Menglong's "Awakening the World", the prosperity of Shengze Silk City has been mentioned.
Today, Shengze, known as the "first town of China's silk", has formed an industrial chain from silk, chemical fiber spinning, weaving, printing and dyeing, fabric deep processing to clothing. In Shengze, the factories of textile, printing and dyeing and weaving on both sides of the road have become a beautiful landscape.
The reporter learned that Shengze textile industry has a prominent advantage in gathering, with a number of large enterprises such as Hengli Group, Shenghong Group, Wujiang Yingxiang Chemical Fiber Co., Ltd. and Jiangsu Xinmin Textile Technology Co., Ltd. as the leader, forming a considerable presence in the Chinese textile industry. Affected textile enterprise clusters. The textile industry also radiated to neighboring areas, forming a textile industry base centered on Shengze, including many neighboring towns and towns in Jiangsu and Zhejiang. Shengze has not only become China's largest textile industry base, but also a distribution center for chemical fiber fabrics.
During the visit, the reporter found that the autumn and winter market of Shengze textile industry lasted for a long time. Some manufacturers believe that the printing and dyeing industry in Shaoxing is mainly affected by environmental pressure, backward production capacity is eliminated, and some orders are transferred to Shengze, making this year's peak season particularly busy. Some manufacturers believe that this year's domestic sales orders are good, such as imitation memory, four-sided bombs, these fabrics have become popular products in the market. At the end of the year, the market for dyed fabrics on all sides is still hot.
“Shengze is the distribution center of chemical fiber fabrics. Many enterprises mainly focus on order production, covering domestic and foreign markets. The domestic market is relatively seasonal, and the orders in the export market are relatively stable.†Wu Xiaofen introduced that this year, several large devices of PTA Without restarting, the new polyester equipment has not been put into production in large quantities, and the polyester fundamentals have improved compared with previous years. In addition, the voice of the polyester manufacturers this year is more concentrated than in the past, and the price control ability has been greatly improved.
In addition, one of the more important reasons is the recovery of downstream product demand. As far as Shengze is concerned, in October and November of this year, the dyeing factory business has been busy, the orders for fabrics have arrived in a concentrated manner, and the operating rate has been running at a high level. The demand for polyester filament yarns continues to improve.
“Since September, the situation of the chemical fiber industry has been good.†The relevant person in charge of Shenghong Group told the reporter that the sales of sports and leisure brands are very gratifying in the downstream consumption this year. The inventory in previous years has been accelerated, and the sales of terminal brands are 5 %—10% growth. At the same time, foreign consumption has also shown simultaneous growth, directly driving the domestic textile industry's spending power.
Why do polyester terminals focus on explosive growth at this stage? In the view of the above-mentioned person in charge, on the one hand, the rise in raw materials is unexpected, the prices of domestic bulk commodities are rising, and freight rates are also rising. In this cost-rising environment, orders for the second and third quarters were released ahead of schedule. In addition, in the past years, the polyester market showed a situation of oversupply. After the elimination of competition, supply and demand gradually balanced.
4 Manufacturers are cautiously optimistic about the market outlook
In this survey, the heads of polyester production enterprises in the Yangtze River Delta region are generally cautiously optimistic about the market outlook. This year's production and operation situation has obviously improved, and the price of the price is also sufficient. It is worth noting that despite the current stable production of slice, staple fiber and filament in polyester, there is a certain differentiation in the segmentation field. For example, short-staple companies have been affected by factors such as weak cotton prices, reduced orders from textile companies, and the approaching of the Spring Festival holiday. Due to the extremely low inventory level of the filaments, some of them have oversold phenomenon. The orders in hand are still acceptable, and the profit level of production and operation is good.
The downstream weaving enterprises still have profits, and the starting load is higher than that of previous years. The supply of polyester polyester raw materials is sufficient, but we are worried that the foreign trade orders after the Spring Festival can withstand the pressure of rising raw material prices. As the printing and dyeing enterprises are close to the terminal, the current order can be produced for about one week at the time of the Spring Festival holiday, and the new orders are also better.
The reporter learned that the current problems faced by downstream slicing, bottle flakes, filaments and staple fibers in the polyester industry are the contradiction between the rising pressure of rising crude oil prices and the transmission of terminal demand. “Although the price of polyester has been strong since September, it is caused by factors such as rising costs, insufficient supply of funds and capital promotion. With the coming of the off-season, the problem of oversupply of polyester will gradually emerge, with some subdivisions. The terminal consumption of the product is not ideal, and the downward conduction of the price is the most important concern of the polyester industry," Huang Liqiang said.
It is worth mentioning that from the results of this survey, the prices of PTA and MEG raw materials have risen sharply this year. Polyester companies not only fully convert their costs, but also obtained excess profits in the context of their own supply and demand pattern.
“Because of the release of orders after the G20 summit, after the elimination of backward production capacity in previous years, the industry is also in a state of good supply and demand. The terminal weaving enterprise’s cost transfer ability is improved, and its own profit is still acceptable. Wang Guangqian said that in the face of this round of rising raw material prices, the terminal enterprises' cost transfer is relatively smooth.
At present, there is no big problem with slicing, staple fiber and filament, but the downstream textile enterprises have more raw materials in the early stage. The demand may be overdrawn before the demand, and the demand may be drastically weak.
According to the relevant person in charge of a certain company, the current raw material inventory and hand-held order arrangement are about one month, and the production and sales pressure is not large in the short term. "There is basically an order to stock up, not because the raw materials have gone up to increase the stock of raw materials." The person in charge believes that at the current FDY price, the current sale can still be profitable, but the problem is that the new orders are not ideal. Foreign customers will not add orders because China's domestic raw material prices have risen, and are currently in a stalemate.
Since the exchange rate of other currencies other than the US dollar is greater than the renminbi, that is to say, the non-US currency depreciates against the renminbi, its import cost will increase accordingly. Domestic chemical fiber raw materials and other auxiliary materials prices have risen sharply, and the cost-transfer ability of foreign trade orders may be weakened after the Spring Festival. In addition, employee stability and recruitment issues have also caused some concerns for weaving companies.
There are also concerns about the stability of employees, as well as printing and dyeing factories. The relevant personnel of Shengze Printing and Dyeing Factory said in an interview with the reporter that the company is currently a business model for earning processing fees, but facing the pressure of increasing environmental protection costs, employee stability is also an uncertain factor.
5 Upstream subsidies downstream situation or change
In this visit, “Thanks to PTA manufacturers†is the common aspiration of many polyester companies. In the past two years, some of the PTA manufacturers have given the polyester companies a chance to “breathâ€.
The reporter learned that due to the need to eliminate backward production capacity, PTA leading enterprises adopted a low-price strategy to maintain the price of PTA near the cost line, so as to eliminate small factories that do not have economies of scale. Under this circumstance, even if the commodity prices rose overall this year, the PTA price remained relatively weak.
"Although this kind of profit-making behavior is passive, it is undeniable that due to the low price of upstream raw materials, the profit of polyester enterprises has been guaranteed this year, and the operating conditions have improved significantly." Huang Liqiang said.
In the entire PX-PTA-polyester industry chain, the source is crude oil, the upstream is PX, the middle is PTA, the downstream is polyester, and the terminal is chemical fiber textile. Due to the different supply and demand conditions, the right to speak in the middle and lower reaches of the industrial chain is also different.
It is understood that due to increased environmental protection pressure, PX new capacity is less, coupled with a longer production cycle, domestic PX capacity growth rate is much lower than PTA capacity growth. This has led to a large number of imported PXs in China. In recent years, PX's import dependence has been rising. The PX industry has the strongest bargaining power in the entire industry chain, and the industry chain profits are mainly concentrated in the PX industry.
From the situation in the past two years, it can be seen that in the PX-PTA-polyester industry chain supply and demand pattern, PX is relatively strong, accounting for the bulk of the entire industry chain profit distribution; PTA supply is relatively loose, the overall cost pricing, up The decline is relatively passive; the polyester market is similar to PTA, and it is relatively weak in the pricing of the entire industry chain, and profits are often at a low level or even a loss.
“When the price of the entire industrial chain rises, the upstream raw material PX rises the most, eroding part of the profit of the PTA industry. The increase in PTA price makes the price of polyester products passively increase.†Wang Guangqian said, but because the increase is less than PTA, polyester production Profits have also been compressed, and even the final loss of polyester production and shrinking demand have dragged down PTA market demand and product prices. After the PTA production profit was re-compressed, it also stopped to repair the demand for compressed PX. The PX supply and demand situation reversed, dragging down the PX price, thus alleviating the cost pressure of downstream PTA and polyester.
Different from the past, in the second half of this year, especially after October, the demand for terminals was released, the supply and demand pattern of polyester links improved first, and profits increased sharply, further driving the market demand of PTA and PX, and the corresponding prices and profits also showed a small expansion. This situation is different from the usual cost-driven rise, and the sustainability is stronger than in the past.
In this survey, the Futures Daily reporter learned that after seeing the high profit of the downstream polyester segment, some PTA factories may actively shrink the proportion of contracted goods in the downstream polyester factory, carry out source control, and enable traders and downstream polyester. The factory takes PTA supply to reduce the arbitrage operation, so that the entire market is controlled to a certain extent. In the past, the profit-making strategy may be adjusted. Some PTA plants believe that the production profit of PTA in 2017 should be improved.
At present, polyester downstream weaving companies have gradually changed from centralized stocking to rigid purchasing. As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream weaving enterprises may start to fall to the freezing point, which will further reduce demand.
However, from the survey, the adjustment of the start-up load of each enterprise is different. Some enterprises have parking maintenance plans at the end of the year, and some enterprises say that as long as there are workers, they will operate at high load.
"The polyester operating rate will definitely have room to fall during the Spring Festival this year. However, in view of the current good production and operation conditions, the situation of large-scale parking maintenance in the past may be difficult to reproduce." Wang Guangqian believes that the polyester price at the end of the year can be judged from the perspective of demand. Or there may be a fall or consolidation.
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