: 6.20 next week spot crude oil gold trend analysis and operational recommendations, with crude oil empty single solution strategy
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: What is the future development prospect of oil prices? 】
On Thursday (June 16), after the Federal Reserve’s June resolution, the focus of the market refocused on the Brexit. Since the fear of Brexit has been speculated by the market for a long time, the strong risk aversion and mixed with the position replenishment triggered a sharp shock in the market. The accidental assassination has become the fuse of market replenishment, and the US dollar index has fluctuated widely in such a market. In terms of crude oil, in addition to Brexit's worries about pressure on oil prices, concerns about the renewed growth of US crude oil production continued, and oil prices fell 4% in Thursday's trend.
Risk aversion surged at the beginning, and investors sold euro assets to buy US assets to support the dollar. The Fed hinted on Wednesday that it would postpone the rate hike, indicating that the agency is not confident about the US economy. At the same time, the Bank of Japan decided on Thursday not to change its asset purchase plan or interest rate policy. The analysis said that Japan decided to maintain the policy unchanged, which prompted the demand for safe-haven investment to further increase, so that the yen exchange rate climbed to a new high. Overseas risk factors have made these central banks cautious, and the number one threat now is that the UK may leave Europe.
Oil prices tumbled 4%, and the market worried that the Brexit would suppress demand for crude oil. Oil prices plunged 4% on Thursday, hitting a one-month low, falling for six days, as investors worried that if the British referendum decided to withdraw from the EU, the global economy would be turbulent. The oil price fell and the market speculated that the British referendum may decide to leave the EU. The dollar hit a two-week high, then softened, the pound strengthened, after the British suspended all referendum canvassing activities, because the British Labor Party member JoCox was killed. The rise in the pound caused oil prices to fall, but oil prices continued to fall in after-hours trading, hitting a new low in the day.
Different from most opinions in the current market,
It is not believed that the fundamentals of the oil market are gradually becoming more balanced. Although the current supply of crude oil is shrinking, as oil prices gradually rebound, oversupply will come back. Since last week, oil prices have ended their upward momentum and returned to below $50. Goldman Sachs (15th) pointed out that $50 will be the near-term top.
Summary: The oil pipeline explosion caused by the Canadian fire and the Nigerian conflict led to a sharp drop in crude oil supply of 3.5 million barrels in May, which is the main driving force for the current round of oil price increases. However, the chaos caused by wildfires in Canada is expected to end at the end of June. Nigeria and the anti-government armed forces have also started negotiations, and the upward momentum of oil prices has begun to dissipate. Yan Yi expects that the oil price recovery trend will stop at the recent level, and that the crude oil price needs to be between 45-50 US dollars per barrel, the market will be able to turn into a supply gap in the second half of 2016. The shortage of crude oil in the second half of this year will continue to moderate. However, in the first quarter of next year, the market will return to the situation of oversupply.
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: Technical analysis of crude oil asphalt and next week's operational recommendations]
Crude oil asphalt From a technical point of view, the US oil Brin line lower rail 46.14 US dollars mark provides good support for oil prices, KDJ technical indicators slightly oversold, short-term oil prices have rebound demand,
I think that the above focus on the resistance around the 5-day moving average of $47.33, focusing on the Bollinger mid-rail of $48.68 per barrel, but since the moving average is still running on the dead end, the mid-line bearish remains unchanged before the effective break of the position, and the technical shortcomings have been gradually mastered. Initiatives, MACD and other indicators showed obvious signs of top divergence and turned downwards. Currently, it is still a short position. The uptrend has reversed. There will be a technical counter-attack in the short-term, but the bears will still triumph after the rebound. Crude oil short-term concern for WTI oil below the support of 45.5 US dollars, above the suppression of 47.5 US dollars, Yi Yi believes that if the effective breakthrough below 45.5, then continue to chase the air, or rebound to the upper 47.5 US dollars pressure near the rallies short;
US crude oil next week's operational recommendations:
1. Rebound 49.2-49.5 open orders, stop loss of 50 US dollars, target 47.7 US dollars;
2, below 47.7-48 more single entry, stop loss 47.2 US dollars, target 49 US dollars;
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: Spot gold technical surface analysis and operation recommendations]
After the international spot gold soared to $1,215 on Thursday, it fell by $30. Weekly hardware prices rebounded strongly and eventually closed at around $1,299. Next week, gold prices are expected to continue to test the 1300-line integer mark; technical day, short-term moving average Head up, the price of gold on the 5-day moving average. Other moving averages are arranged to run; KDJ three-line flat is located in overbought, MACD double-line development upwards, red kinetic energy is enhanced; 4 hours on the gold price, it is expected to re-enter the V-shaped reversal pattern after the V-price is gone, KDJ cross gold fork Ascending, MACD double-line hook head upwards, green kinetic energy weakened; comprehensively, the gold price is expected to continue to look more on Monday, the operational strategy callback is mostly!
Spot gold Monday operation recommendations
1, empty single: rebound 1310 first line short, stop loss 4 points, near the target 1290;
2, more than one: callback 1290-1287 to do more, stop loss 4 points, near the target 1312;
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: Crude oil asphalt empty single quilt cover specific solution strategy]
Empty single quilt friends, steady, the position risk rate is sufficient next Monday can fill in the empty position at the high position, Yi Yi personally optimistic about the top of the previous transaction intensive line to fill the empty list, lower the average price, make up the position funds, short-term existence Callback kinetic energy. Secondly, it is best to carry out the operation of bargain-hunting at the same time, so that in the next wave of market, you can take the initiative in the psychological and financial.
When I recently exchanged the issue of stop loss with investors, I often heard investors say that every time a stop loss is set, the market will always reverse immediately after sweeping the stop loss. It may be that you are not in the support position or The resistance level is made, or the stop loss is not above or below the support level and the resistance level. The original direction is correct, but the market will sweep your stop loss and then go in the right direction. This kind of thing is really a headache. First, it is possible that you will not grasp the entry point and how to set the stop loss. The second is that although you set the stop loss at the entry point, it is more reasonable, but the market is really swept away.
I think that if you don't have a stop loss, you can avoid being swept away and then turn losses into profit. But after getting used to it, you won't lose money every time. There will definitely be a quilt. You can think about the taste of the quilt cover or the taste of sweeping. If you are quilt, it will make your net worth less and less, and it will affect your order. If you want to be an empty position, there is no pressure. If you sweep it, you will not be able to come back next time. The chance of every day is that the key is not to be quilted. In fact, the mentality is the most important. You continue with the quilt list. Doing a single and resting on weekends will make you feel depressed and upset. In fact, a good attitude is the first step to do a good job!
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: How to make a single quote for the skyrocketing market? 】
Recently, the market has plummeted and unilaterally and turbulently, but you are always unsure, that is, the so-called one buys and falls, and one falls and cuts, one cuts and rises, one rises and then catches, one catches and sets, one Set and cut again. It's like a dead set, the funds are shrinking, and so on, it's endless.
What I want to say is that if you are in such a cycle, please stop and think about it, sum up the experience and lessons, and reload. If you believe me or just read my article, I can agree with what I said. I can't guarantee that you are profitable, but you will use the attitude of certification and responsibility, accurate unit judgment, and steady way to ensure your overall. Profit.
Reason, I believe that everyone understands, but it is the status quo, small losses think that you can earn back, big losses think that other people are ignorant, continue to choose the last and lose choice; I am really sad, too much business in the market Members, all day said that they can bring you money, say better than singing, I hate you, I will not choose, I am an analyst, not an emotional expert, you always call the list and continue to follow others, wait? There is only one result, that is, continue to lose until you have no value for it, or let you continue to lose money, but many people really eat this set, draw a big cake, let everyone buy a big spoon, also I don't want to think that the meat in front of me can't eat and I still want to grab the distance.
Facing the future trend of the market with your own team, never make too many predictions. It is speculated that these are subjective. The most important thing is to sort out the market based on the past and the current situation to judge the strength of the market rather than forecast. Want to follow
Learn how to analyze layouts and make a few tips to contact me. As for the asphalt crude oil asphalt long and short quilt, if the position is relatively low,
It is recommended to call back some small losses or save the book, if the position of the empty order is relatively high,
Suggestions can be held in the short term, the target is guaranteed or the small earned out, it is not suitable for a long time.
I like the words Sakyamuni Buddha said: "No matter who you meet, he is the one who should appear in your life. It is no accident that he will teach you something." and so
I also believe: "Wherever I go, it is the place where I should go, experience some things that I should experience, meet the people I should meet." Everyone who is reading this article, thank you for meeting you!
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